After their first bowl win since 2010 in the Military Bowl, the Terps will look to make it the first time going to a bowl game two years in a row since 2013-2014. These will be the five games that will be the most crucial to making that happen this year.
5. September 17th, Home vs SMU
In week three, the week before opening conference play against Michigan, the Terps will be hosting SMU. While SMU is a group of five team, they have consistently been one of the better group of five teams in the country. With the Terps expected to be 2-0 heading into the game, if they want to make it easier to get to a bowl game, they will need to go 3-0 in out of conference games and SMU is their toughest non-conference opponent. SMU added ample talent out of the transfer portal this offseason in DE David Abiara (Texas), WR Kelvontay Dixon (Texas), LB Kamryn Farrar (Oklahoma St), OT Owen Condon (Georgia), RB Camar Wheaton (Alabama), TE Kameron Allen (Michigan St) and LB Jaqwondis Burns (Minnesota) among others. The Mustangs also finished tenth in the country in points per game and 13th in yards per game on offense last season, while they rank 20th in the country on offense in returning production. The Mustangs' defense though is their biggest weakness as they worked to address such this offseason. They were 92nd in yards per game given up and 86th in points given up per game in the country last year. A key player on offense to look out for for the Mustangs is QB Tanner Mordecai who had over 3,800 total yards and 41 total touchdowns last season. On defense for the Mustangs, LB Delano Robinson is a key player to look out for. He led the team in total tackles and also had a sack and an interception last season. This has all the makings to be a high-scoring offensive game, so if this ends up being a shootout I would not be surprised.
Prediction: Maryland 45- SMU 35
4. October 8th, Home vs Purdue
In their first matchup since 2019, the Terps will host the Purdue Boilermakers as they're coming off a 9-4 season where they went 6-3 in conference play. In the 2019 matchup, Purdue won 40-14 against the Terps. Purdue is 48th in the country in returning production with 68% on offense and 72% on defense. Purdue was the 59th scoring offense with 29.1 points per game. They were a very good passing team with 4,620 passing yards last season. On defense, they were 34th in points allowed per game with 22.4 points per game. They did struggle to stop the run last year though giving up 157.9 yards per game. This is another conference game that is setting up to be a must-win if Maryland wants to make it to a bowl game. On offense for Purdue, look out for QB Aidan O'Connell. He had 3,712 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns. On defense, look out for Safety Cam Allen. He had 65 total tackles as well as four picks and a fumble recovery for Purdue last season. If the Terps want to beat Purdue, the Best way to stop them is to pressure O'Connell and make him uncomfortable so they have to run the ball. If the Terps turn Purdue into a passing team and can keep the defense honest, I see the Terps winning it in a somewhat close game.
Prediction: Maryland 32- Purdue 23
3. November 26th, Home vs Rutgers
In the last game of the regular season for the Terps, they will be hosting Rutgers. If this season goes anything like last season for the Terps this will be a must win game for them if they want to make it to a bowl game. Last year the Terps were 5-6 heading into the Rutgers game and came out on top 40-16 to become bowl eligible. The Terps were able to keep Rutgers honest all game thanks to Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for 312 yards and three touchdowns and the Terps also ran for a combined 263 yards and three touchdowns. Rutgers has typically been the doormat of the Big Ten when it comes to football since joining the conference, but last season was different for the Scarlet Knights. In Greg Schiano's second season back as the head coach. They went 5-8, but they were still able to make it in a bowl game due to another team having to drop out due to covid. So whether or not Rutgers keeps climbing or they go back to their recent 2-3 win seasons remains a mystery. On offense, the key player to look out for on Rutgers is QB Noah Vedral. He had 2,110 total yards and nine total touchdowns last season. On defense, look out for LB Christian Izien. He was second on the team in total tackles and he also had four pass deflections. I do not see the Terps having trouble winning this game. They have too much returning firepower on offense and Rutgers is simply not a great offensive team that will test the Terps lack of experience on defense that much.
Prediction: Maryland 51- Rutgers 17
2. October 1st, Home vs Michigan State
In week four, after opening conference play on the road in Ann Arbor, the Terps come back home to host the Spartans. The Spartans are coming off their best season since 2017 when they went 10-3. If the Terps want to make it to a bowl game and take that next step in beating the big four of the Big Ten East, then winning this game will be huge for the Terps. The last time the Terps beat the Spartans was in 2016 when they beat them 28-17 in College Park. On offense, the Spartans are only returning 65% of their production which ranks 70th in the country. But they do bring back 79% of their defensive production which is 24th in the country. Last season when these two teams met, the Spartans won 40-21, but someone that watched that game could say that game was closer than the scoreboard showed. The biggest problem the Terps had that game was finishing drives on offense and they gave up too many third-down conversions so the defense was on the field way too much. The Terps were 1-for-3 in red-zone chances and were 3-of-13 on third down while the Spartans were a perfect 4-for-4 in the red zone and 8-for-13 on third downs last year. If the Terps were to beat the Spartans it can show the program is heading in the right direction. On offense, the player to look out for on MSU is Jayden Reed. He is a speedy WR that had 1,060 total yards of offense and 11 total touchdowns for the Spartans. On defense, the player to look out for is Safety Xavier Henderson. He led the team in total tackles and had three sacks and an interception last season for the Spartans. If the Terps want to win this game, they will need to win the line of scrimmage and keep the Spartan defense honest by spreading the ball out and staying balanced on offense.
Prediction: Maryland 38- MSU 34
1. November 12th, Away at Penn State
In the Terps last away game of the season, the Terps will head to University Park and take on Penn State. Believe it or not but the Terps have a better record on the road against Penn State than they do at home. But with only four wins all-time against the Nittany Lions, the Terps will be looking to pull off another upset on the road in Happy Valley. The last time they met in Happy Valley the Terps blew out Penn State winning it 35-20. But that was in the Covid year where there were also no fans in the stands. In last year's game, the final score did not show just how close of a game it really was. It was 14-14 late into the fourth quarter before Penn State went on a 17-0 run to close out the game. The Terps woes in the red zone was the biggest difference in the game. The Terps were 2/5 in the red zone. Penn State was also 10/18 on third down in the game which kept the Terps defense on the field way too much and tired them out by the end of the game. Last year, Penn State was a pass-first team because they struggled to run the ball so much. That and they had Jahan Dotson who went off for 242 yards and three touchdowns against the Terps last year. But with Dotson gone, they have a large role to fill in the passing game if they want to be as good of an offense as they were last year. On offense, the player to look out for is QB Sean Clifford after he had 3,270 total yards and 23 total touchdowns last season. On defense for Penn State, look out for Safety Ji'Ayir Brown. He was third on the team in tackles as well as leading the team in interceptions with six including the pick-six he had against the Terps last year. Another reason this game is big is for recruiting. Penn State, especially since James Franklin became the head coach, has heavily recruited the DMV and has beaten the Terps in many recruiting battles. Beating Penn State shows recruits that the program is progressing and can compete with some of the top teams in the conference which will lead to getting those top players to want to stay home instead of heading up north to Penn State. If you want to beat Penn State, like last season, you will have to make them a running team. They only averaged 107.8 rushing yards per game, which was 118th in the country. On defense, they are ranked 103rd in returning production at only 57%, meaning they will lack experience against a high powered offense like Maryland can potentially be. I believe this will be a high-scoring game with two high-scoring offenses and two defenses that are not returning a lot of key players.
Prediction: Maryland 39- Penn State 35
If the Terps want to make it to a bowl game this season and show recruits and fans the program is trending upwards these five games will be big games that they will need to win.
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