#12 Maryland 5-3 (0-1) at #4 Penn State 7-1 (1-0)
Where: Panzer Stadium, University Park, PA
When: Sunday March 31st, 7PM EST
TV: Big Ten Network
Betting: Maryland +1.5 +100, +145 ML (DraftKings)
Maryland is in the midst of its first two-game losing streak since 2017, and they’ll look to end that on Sunday night against yet another top-ten opponent in Penn State.
Maryland is 11-0 at Penn State and is 40-1 all-time against the Nittany Lions, with the lone loss coming in 2019.
The Nittany Lions are coming into this game as the hottest team in the country. Penn State lost their first game of the season to Colgate but has since rattled off a seven-game win streak. During their win streak, the Nittany Lion offense is averaging a whopping 15 goals a game. They are led by attackman TJ Malone and midfielder Matt Traynor. Last season, Malone exploded onto the season and ended up finishing with 72 points coming off of 39 goals and 33 assists. This season, Malone has 42 points coming off of 17 goals and 25 assists leading the team. While Malone is not scoring as much as he did last season, he’s become a better passer. Malone is great at beating his man and setting himself up to cause slides to open up his teammates. And if a defense does not slide, Malone takes advantage and puts the ball in the back of the net himself. Malone’s favorite target to find is Traynor. Traynor leads the team in goals with 27 on the season while also tallying four assists. Last season against the Terps, Traynor led the Nittany Lions with four goals. This season with the Terps not having their top short-stick defensive midfielder from last season in Dante Trader, will need to rely on Nick Redd and Eric Kolar to step up and slow down Traynor’s scoring in order to help the Terps pull off the upset. Look out for Ajax Zappitello, who was named a midseason All-American, to be matched up with Malone for most of the game to try and shut him down. If Zappitello and the defensive midfielders can win their matchups and slow down the high-powered Penn State offense, I like their chances at pulling off the upset.
On defense, Penn State is a very physical defense that flies around to the ball and does not give up many easy looks. Penn State’s opponents are turning the ball over 17.4 times a game, something the Terps have massively struggled with this season, especially in their three losses. Maryland’s offense will need to play under control and at their own pace this Sunday if they want to pull off the win. Something they need to do a lot more that will help open up the offense more is off ball movement. Many times in their three losses, players who do not have the ball can be seen standing still and not cutting. If a team is not moving off the ball, it simply makes playing defense much easier for their opponent. Moving the ball fast and winning their one-on-one matchups will be key this weekend to getting open looks and pulling off the upset. Look out for Penn State’s Alex Ross on defense to slow down Braden Erksa and the rest of the Terps attack unit. Ross leads the Nittany Lions in caused turnovers with nine and also has 12 ground balls to his name. Another player to look out for is Traynor on defense. Traynor can play both sides of the field and is tied for second on the team with six caused turnovers while tallying 27 ground balls as well which is first on the team excluding their top face-off man. If the Terps can find the ball movement they had when Bobby Benson was the offensive coordinator and do not turn the ball over a lot, I like their chances at pulling off the win.
This game has massive postseason implications for the Terps. If they can pull off a win on the road, it would be a massive boost to their RPI and massively help their chances at making the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid if they do not win the Big Ten tournament. Another loss would be damaging for Maryland’s postseason odds for a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament, along with an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Maryland, 11-9
I can see this game going two different ways. Both ways involve one team starting fast but letting the other team back into the game. However, the team that gets the fast start ends up pulling out the win. Starting fast will be massive for the Terps. The longer Penn State is in the game, the more confident they will get and the more dangerous they will be as a team. Given the history of the Terps dominance over the Nittany Lions, Penn State will show up hungry smelling blood in the water with a troubled Terps squad and will look to dominate the game from start to finish. I see this game being no more than a two goal difference at the end either way but I believe it will be the Terps pulling out the 11-9 win and coming back home with a 1-1 record in conference play.
The Terps will be looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak in regular season play since 2009 on Sunday. The game is set to face off at 7 PM EST and will air on the Big Ten Network.
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