After three tuneup games back at Xfinity to get back over .500, the next test awaits head coach Kevin Willard and Maryland men’s basketball as they begin conference play against Indiana. While the Hoosiers remain a slight home favorite, how do the Terps stack up in the analytic report after three consecutive wins? What stats stick out above the rest, and which are most critical for the Terps to stack wins heading into December? We dive into it all in the second edition of the Maryland basketball analytics report.
(All stats via Kenpom, all rankings out of 362 Division 1 teams)
Maryland’s offense has been the story of the season so far, and not for good reason. Against Villanova, the offense barely achieved the 40-point mark in what was one of the worst offensive performances in the history of the program. The latest three wins have improved their numbers a bit but Maryland still ranks as the 117th-best offense in the nation with an efficiency of 107.2 points per 100 possessions.
Four Factors
–Effective FG %: 46.8% (260th)
–Turnover %: 18.6% (221st)
–Off. Rebound %: 34.9% (58th)
–Free Throws Attempted/ Field Goals Attempted: 46.6% (19th)
Maryland is becoming one of the elite teams at getting to the foul line, drawing at least 20 free-throws in six of their first seven games. This falls on the lap of Julian Reese as he ranks 26th in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes and 15th in free throw rate, measuring a player’s ability to get the line as opposed to how many shots they take. Reese has been incredible at drawing fouls and his confidence is growing as he now boasts a 66% free-throw percentage, thanks to a 14-of-17 performance against Rider. Maryland is still struggling with shooting and turnovers relative to the rest of the country, but Tuesday’s win showed. Maryland is still well below average in effective FG% (which puts more weight on the 3-point shot), which is the most important factor Kenpom uses to judge offensive success. The Terrapins are also creating too many turnovers for themselves that are becoming frustrating and this was a major problem against Villanova. The offensive rebounding is a bright spot as, again, Reese is becoming an analytical darling with Willard making post success a clear priority. Reese is ranked 99th in offensive rebounding and has been putting up monster numbers on the glass. This was against lower competition so we will see if he can continue this in conference play.
–3P%: 23.8% (353rd)
–2P%: 54.5% (65th)
–FT%: 67.9% (262nd)
–Block%: 9.8% (213th)
–Steal%: 9.2% (155th)
–Non-Steal TO%: 9.4% (259th)
The three-point shooting just keeps getting worse for Maryland. Prior to Tuesday’s game, they were ranked third to last in the nation in three-point percentage. Freshman Jamie Kaiser Jr. caught on from deep against Rider, watching his first two shots fall through, but the consistency remains a question as Maryland ranks 353rd–out of 362 teams–in the category. The two-point percentage is getting to be Maryland’s bread and butter as they now rank 65th in the nation. While Reese has been productive in the paint, I would credit this to the emergence of Jordan Geronimo. Geronimo has broken out as an offensive threat in the last few games as he is shooting 70% from inside the arc (rank 106). He rarely looks to take shots outside and him finding his stroke has proved to pay dividends for the Maryland offense. A big question heading into the season was who would emerge as the fifth starter for Maryland and heading into his first trip to Bloomington as a visitor, Geronimo has filled that role as he’s grown comfortable within Willard’s style and provided a defensive spark.
The team’s free throw percentage needs to get better as they are still below average. Hitting their shots would go a long way as they are in elite company at getting to the line. The non-steal turnover percentage is one I wanted to point out. Maryland had major issues with shot clock violations against Villanova; this is easily fixable by the coaching staff to limit these mistakes and get the offense moving.
3 Pointers Attempted/ Field Goals Attempted: 40.5% (106th)
Assists/ Field Goal Made: 46.4% (239th)
3-Pointers: 23.0% (316th)
2-Pointers: 51.7% (162nd)
Free Throws: 25.3% (21st)
Despite their horrendous three-point shooting, Maryland is still going back to the three-ball often as 40.5% of their shots are from behind the arc. With major opponents coming up I would like to see this number come down. Maryland ranks high in relying on the free throw to get a chunk of their points. Obviously, this is due to the number of free throws they have taken; however their low free throw percentage is alarming to me as this means other facets of their offense are cold. This is also going to be hard to translate on the road where calls will not be going their way and free throw opportunities will be scarcer. Maryland needs to spread these percentages out more for success on the road.
Maryland ranks as the 23rd defense in the country in terms of efficiency They allow 94.8 points per 100 possessions.
Four Factors
–Effective FG%: 45.0% (47th)
–Turnover%: 22.8% (22nd)
–Off. Reb. %: 31.1% (228th)
–FTA/FGA: 32.2% (171st)
Maryland has done a great job thus far of limiting their opponent’s shooting percentage. Kevin Willard has always had strong defenses, and this has carried over into the early 2024 season. Turnover remains a key cog for this success as Maryland ranks 22nd in the nation in this metric. Again, this is due in part to the Maryland press defense after a score. Defensive rebounding needs to be improved as Reese ranks 47th in the nation but the rest of the team is underwhelming. Against large teams like Indiana and Purdue, rebounding is going to be key to limiting second-chance points. Maryland is still slightly below average in free throws called per field goals attempted.
It will be important to keep fouls down against Indiana as they rank 2nd in terms of drawing calls. Against an Indiana team with three starters over 6-foot-8, Julian Reese and Jordan Geronimo need to be disciplined as they still have high foul numbers with the Terps’ margin for error still slim, especially on the road.
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 30.9% (114th)
2P%: 44.6% (47th)
FT%: 77.2% (333rd)
Block% 11.6% (78th)
Steal%: 13.0% (30th)
Non-Stl TO%: 9.8% (59th)
Looking at these stats it is clear that Maryland has done a great job at protecting the rim. They rank highly in opponent 2P% and block%. As demonstrated by their high turnover percentage, they are creating steals and non-steal turnovers at a high clip. Jahmir Young, Jordan Geronimo, and Deshawn Harris-Smith lead the way in creating steals for the defense. The swarming style of the defense has saved Maryland from embarrassment against Villanova and has held lesser opponents at bay. Heading into conference play, Maryland has to rely on their defensive structure to continue to make turnovers and limit quality shots inside.
3PA/FGA: 25.4% (6th)
A/FGM: 42.7% (54th)
3-Pointers: 20.5% (345th)
2-Pointers: 57.9% (36th)
Free Throws: 21.6% (97th)
Opponents have not attempted to shoot a lot of three-pointers against the Terrapins thus far. This has played into Maryland’s favor as they would rather draw teams inside where they can protect the rim. However, offenses are still relying heavily on the two-point shot and free-throws to score the majority of their points. This is most likely due to the limited amount of three-pointers being taken against Maryland. Maryland limiting outside shots can be a successful tool to keep them in games.
#72 Indiana
Indiana is just as poor as Maryland from the three-point line but the difference is they don’t force the matter. The Hoosiers are going to look to use their size to get inside and potentially draw fouls. Julian Reese has a big task ahead of him as Kel’el Ware (7’0), Malik Reneau (6’9), and Mackenzie Mgbako (6’8) are all key contributors for the Hoosiers. Teams have found success from the three-point line against Indiana, and this may not bode well for Maryland. Teams have not been able to get down low and have success and this is where Maryland has gone to for their offensive production. Shots may need to fall and second chance opportunities on the glass will need to be created in order for Maryland to pull out a road victory at the Assembly Hall.
KenPom projected score: Maryland 68, Indiana 70
#100 Penn State
This is a better matchup for the Terrapins as opponents have been able to get to the paint and score against the Nittany Lions. Penn St. does a good job at preventing the three which will force Maryland to go down low. Look for Maryland to have success on the glass as well as Julian Reese will face a familiar foe in Quadas Wahab. Penn St. will look to take three-pointers but have not had much success. Maryland’s defense at the 3-point line will help them in this aspect. As long as Maryland does not turn the ball over frequently against a pesky Penn St. defense, they should be able to come out victorious.
KenPom projected score: Maryland 75, Penn St. 68
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