Maryland will look to end its five-game losing streak against Michigan State when they take on the Spartans in East Lansing on Saturday evening, heading into one of the most pivotal remaining games on the schedule. It gives the Terps a chance to avenge the 61-59 loss back on Jan. 21, but after securing consecutive wins since, head coach Kevin Willard will look for his team to ride its defense to its fourth road win of the season. Heading into a marquee game and a chance for Maryland to get back on the right side of the bubble conversation, we dive into the analytics of what has got Maryland back “in position to be in position.”
(All stats via KenPom, rankings out of 362)
Following the Nebraska win, Maryland moved from 67th to 53rd in the updated KenPom rankings, leaning on its elite defense which now sits sixth nationally. What might be more assuring is the offense is now slightly ahead of the national average, a positive trajectory considering where they began.
Maryland’s efficiency takeaways:
- Maryland is still struggling with shot efficiency, but this metric has been increasing steadily.
- Offensive rebounding is still a strong point with Julian Reese leading the way, ranking 115th in the country.
- Maryland still gets to the foul line at an elite rate
- Maryland’s strong defense comes from their tenacity in limiting opponent’s shooting percentage.
- Defensive rebounding is still something to work on but like other metrics, this is improving since their middle of the season slump.
Maryland’s offensive takeaways:
- Again it is 3-point shooting that negatively jumps off the page. However, this number is getting much better as the team was as low as 358th in the nation. Donta Scott has become the shooter that Maryland has needed shooting 37%. Jahari Long has also helped shooting 37.8% and even Jamie Kaiser may have found a groove from beyond the arc hitting 4 of 5 shots against Nebraska.
- Teams have been able to hit 34.1% of three-pointers against Maryland, a rare blemish on their defensive resume.
- Maryland can create turnovers and is elite at defending shots inside.
- Julian Reese is a blocking machine as he blocks 7.4% of shots against him. This along with Geronimo’s 141st rank leads Maryland to get a lot of blocks.
Maryland’s style takeaways:
- Maryland has changed their style of play to suit their strengths. At points, Maryland has ranked in the top-100 at attempting 3-pointers. They have scaled this back, and it has led to better efficiency and cleaner looks inside.
- Although teams shoot well from the 3-point line, Maryland still limits these chances better than almost any team in the nation.
- Maryland still relies heavily on points from free-throws.
Matchup Preview vs Michigan St.
Maryland will take on a Michigan State team that checks in at 17th in the updated KenPom rankings.
Michigan St. offense vs. Maryland defense
Michigan St. Efficiency Takeaways:
- A lot of even categories here. Michigan St. shoots the ball well and limits turnovers. Maryland combats this with strong metrics of its own in these categories.
- Michigan St. doesn’t get to the line efficiently and this could be a positive for Maryland with a potential home whistle for the Spartans.
Michigan St. Offensive Takeaways:
- Michigan St. shoots the three ball well and Maryland has been susceptible to hot shooting teams from behind the line. Tyson Walker, Jaden Akins, and Tre Holloman can all hit shots from deep.
- The Spartans shoot well from 2-point range, but Maryland can have the leg up down low. Michigan St. does not have a dominant big man who can make shots and Reese can. Hopefully limit fouls and play solid defense in the paint.
Michigan St. Style Takeaways:
- Yes, Michigan St. shoots the three well, but they do not attempt it much. Combine this with Maryland limiting three-pointers and it could be a positive indicator for Maryland to stay in this one.
- Michigan St. moves the ball very well with a plethora of experienced guards and forwards. Maryland may have difficulty with ball movement.
- Michigan St. gets most of its points from 2-pointers. No surprise as they don’t attempt many deep shots. Maryland opponents also get most of their points from 2-point shots. Protecting the paint is key.
Maryland Offense vs Michigan St. Defense
Takeaways
- This could be the issue for Maryland as the Spartans rank 20th overall in defense. Michigan St. ranks high in effective FG% allowed, a potential mismatch for Maryland to generate points.
- A staple of Izzo teams, Michigan St. can also cause turnovers against Maryland as they rank 89th. Tyson Walker is elite at creating turnovers as well as Malik Hall.
- Maryland can create a mismatch on the glass. Michigan St. has struggled to grab defensive boards and Maryland can create second-chance opportunities that can add up.
- Maryland should drive the ball down low to Reese as MSU is susceptible to foul calls. The Terrapins should focus on creating free throws and grabbing offensive boards.
Takeaways
- The Spartans defend the shot well, a clear advantage for Michigan State.
- No real advantages for Maryland at all in these components.
Takeaways
- Teams take a lot of shots against Michigan St. Maryland has had better success not taking as many 3-pointers but opportunities could be there for a hot Donta Scott and Jahari Long.
- Of course with the volume teams shoot against the Spartans, a lot of them rely on three-pointers for a good chunk of their points. However, opponents also rely on free throws. This could bode well for Maryland if they can get to the line like they have been.
The keys to the game are simple:
- Get to the line efficiently
- Defend the paint.
- Grab offensive boards if shots are not falling against a stifling defense.
- Take three-pointers since they will be there.
- Limit turnovers against the crafty Spartans.
- The big gap between these teams is shooting ability, if the Terps can get hot then it may be the difference.
KenPom projected score:
Michigan St. 68- Maryland 60
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