Welcome to the first edition of the Maryland analytic report, where we take a dive into the world of college basketball analytics and what they are telling us about the Maryland basketball team. Analytics have taken over the college basketball realm as rankings such as KenPom and NET play a major factor in deciding March seedings. The beauty of analytics is that it can help tell a story of how a team plays and project a story for the future. Every few weeks we will look at how Maryland’s offense and defense stack up against the rest of the country as well as how the analytics look for the next few opponents and perhaps uncover a story on how to defeat them.
Maryland has not had the best start to the season dropping two games this past weekend in the Asheville Championship to Davidson (Kenpom #111) and UAB (Kenpom #88). What was a top 25 team preseason on Kenpom, has now dropped to 46. Still, a lot of time for Maryland to right the ship but let’s take a dive into the analytics.
All stats via KenPom, rankings out of 362 Division 1 teams
Maryland currently ranks 75th in offense in the country with an adjusted efficiency of 107.8, toward the lower end for Power Five teams in this metric. Maryland also ranks 304th in adjusted tempo.
-Effective FG%: 44.8% (267th)
-Turnover%: 21.6% (295th)
-Off. Rebound %: 35.2% (72nd)
-Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted: 40.5% (82nd)
Maryland is certainly struggling in the shooting category as their 44.8% effective field goal percentage is well below the national average of 49.4%. Maryland has also struggled a lot in protecting the ball as they turn the ball over on a whopping 21.6% of their possessions, which is good for 295th in the nation. That’s been a sore spot for Maryland through the first stretch of the season, but it’s been arguably the biggest surprise for a backcourt that returned Jahmir Young. Maryland saw Ian Martinez depart this offseason, who was Maryland’s top three-point shooter and best perimeter defender, and the reserves haven’t been able to fill in as expected.
Some bright spots for Maryland are their high offensive rebounding percentage of 35.2% and their ability to draw fouls. Julian Reese and Deshawn Harris-Smith are the key contributors in this category. Reese has an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.2% (223rd in the player rankings) and Harris-Smith has an OR% of 11 (261st in player rankings). Both also receive national rankings in the fouls drawn per 40-minute category as Reese continues to make free throw shooting an emphasis before and after practices. The Terrapins are getting to the line and creating second chances on the glass, but their shooting and turnover woes are getting in the way.
-3P%: 22.6% (324th)
-2P%: 51.5% (152nd)
-FT%: 69.7% (179th)
-Block%: 14.9% (313th)
-Steal%: 13.5% (326th)
-Non-Steal TO%- 8.0% (162nd)
Some ugly categories from the Maryland offense as they are near the bottom of the country in three-point shooting, which seems to be the same old for Maryland so far. Willard turned to Noah Batchelor as the fifth starter on Sunday in hopes of providing a spark, but that quickly fell through as the Terps’ concerns were magnified. Their shots from inside the arc are not great either as it is slightly above the national average. Regarding free throw percentage, Maryland is not taking advantage of their ability to get to the line with an average free throw rate. Julian Reese is struggling at just 43.8% despite being one of the most fouled players in the country, while Jahmir Young is a top-130 player in terms of free throw percentage. Teams are also blocking 14.9% of Maryland shots, which is way above the national average of 9.6%. That was on full display last weekend as Maryland struggled around the rim, notably Deshawn Harris-Smith as he acclimates to the college game. Maryland also has 13.5% of their possessions end up in a steal, arguably the biggest concern. These numbers are concerning considering the competition Maryland has played up until this point.
Assists/ Field Goal Made: 43.9% (256th)
3-Pointers: 21.9%(298th)
2-Pointers: 54.2% (122nd)
Free Throws: 24.0% (62nd)
As much as it seems like they have been, Maryland has not been forcing the three-point shot as they are on par with the national average of 37.2% of shots being a three-pointer. The ball movement could use some work as they rank well below the national average in terms of assists, but you wonder if this is the first stat the Terps improve as the sample size grows and players develop better on-court chemistry. Jahmir Young ranks 47th in the nation in assist rate but the rest of the team is subpar. Unsurprisingly, Maryland is not getting a lot of their points from behind the arc. Instead, they rank high in terms of free throws contributing to their point totals. Despite their average free throw percentage, their ability to get to the line helps them.
Maryland ranks 29th in defense.
-Effective FG%: 42.9% (50th)
-Turnover%: 21.6% (68th)
-Off. Reb. %: 30.8% (199th)
-FTA/FGA: 34.6% (195th)
Maryland’s defense has much better numbers than the offense. The 29th-ranked defense is top 50 in opponent effective FG% as the defense has held up, aside from the perimeter defense blunders against Davidson. Maryland has been creating turnovers at a 21.6% clip, which strangely enough is the exact same rate as their offense is committing turnovers. The press defense has always helped the Terrapins be a leader in this stat. Maryland has been underwhelming in the defensive rebounding category as their opponents have an OR% of 30.8%. Caelum Swanton-Rodger has been excellent at grabbing defensive boards in limited minutes, but Reese has not been overly impressive as the Terps will need their big man to own the glass. Maryland is also committing a fair number of fouls. Julian Reese is committing 5.1 fouls/40 minutes, something that he always seems to have trouble with. The freshman duo of Jamie Kaiser and Deshawn Harris-Smith also both have fouls/40 over 4.
2P%: 42.1% (41st)
FT%: 78.6% (313th)
Block% 11.1% (111th)
Steal %: 11.0% (108th)
Non-Stl TO% 10.5% (72nd)
For the most part, Maryland is holding their opponents to low shooting percentages, especially from two-point range. Teams are shooting very well from the line against Maryland, which is not their fault, but they should look to limit the fouls they are giving. The Terrapins are above average in blocks, steals, and non-steal turnovers. Julian Reese and Jordan Geronimo both rank in the top 250 for block percentage. Jahari Long’s 4.9 steal% ranks 140th in the nation while Deshawn Harris-Smith and Jordan Geronimo also rank nationally.
3PA/FGA: 22.2% (8th)
A/FGM: 46.9% (139th)
3-Pointers: 18% (335th)
2-Pointers: 57.9% (73rd)
Free Throws: 24.0% (72nd)
Maryland opponents are not shooting many three-pointers against them. A little surprising since Davidson took a lot last Friday. Opponents are relying on mostly 2 pointers and free throws to score against the Maryland defense.
Villanova just lost to Penn on Monday, but this edition of the Wildcats is poised to be good. A little different of an opponent for Maryland as they are going to look to shoot the three and are lights out from the line. Maryland must continue to defend the three well and limit their fouls if they want a shot.
Kenpom prediction: Maryland 66, Villanova 71
Maryland should feed the rock down low against UMBC. They cannot defend down there and are decent at holding opponents to low 3P%. Despite their fast pace they do not take a lot of shots. Maryland should not get cute and limit the three-point attempts, dominate the offensive glass, and slow the game down.
Kenpom Prediction: Maryland 83, UMBC 63
South Alabama is not what you would call an analytical darling. They can’t shoot well, are not good on the glass, foul a lot, and can’t defend shooting. Maryland should continue their solid 3-point defending and try to get down low to draw fouls. Maryland’s press defense is bound to get some steals on this South Alabama squad.
Kenpom prediction: Maryland 71, South Alabama 59
Maryland has a Kenpom projected record of 18-13.
Related Links
Maryland vs. Villanova: how to watch, listen, betting, what to watch
Mike Locksley sees “no impact” in Jim Harbaugh’s availability this weekend
Kevin Willard on facing Hakim Hart, players settling into new roles
Maryland among the schools recruiting top-100 prospect the hardest (+)
