Will Maryland men's basketball return to the NCAA Tournament in 2027?

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At the University of Maryland, the men’s basketball team is expected to make the NCAA Tournament every season. Are the 2026-27 Terps prepared to meet that expectation with the regular season set to begin on Monday against Bucknell?

After missing three of the past five NCAA Tournaments and finishing last season with its worst winning percentage in 37 years, skepticism about this team’s ability to waltz to the Big Dance is understandable. However, through two public exhibition games, this team appears far better equipped to accomplish that goal than Buzz Williams’ first Terps squad. Williams has put together a roster featuring two potential all-conference players and significantly more talent, depth and versatility than last year’s 12-21 team. It’s a roster that has all the pieces needed to return to college basketball’s ultimate stage.

Pharrel Payne and Andre Mills, who both followed Williams from College Station to College Park after the 2024-25 campaign, form an inside-outside duo that any Big Ten coach would covet. Any conversation around what the Terps can achieve this season starts with those two.

Payne, who was one of 11 players named to the preseason All-Big Ten team, was Maryland’s best all-around player when he was healthy last season. He averaged 17.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 10 games before missing the rest of the season with an injury. In exhibition games against Georgia Tech and West Virginia, Payne picked up right where he left off, averaging 21 points and 11 rebounds.

Payne, who averaged 3.2 offensive rebounds per game last season, is the type of player who can single-handedly end a scoring drought without having a play called for him. He’s the type of post player who commands double teams and can open up easy scoring chances for his teammates. He’s the type of post defender and rim protector Maryland needs to compete in the physical Big Ten. In a conference known for big men, Payne could be the best of this season’s bunch.

While Mills wasn’t named to the preseason All-Big Ten team, don’t be shocked if he plays his way onto the postseason version. The 6-foot-4 guard emerged late last season as Maryland’s best perimeter scorer, averaging 17.9 points over his final 13 games. Mills had a 39-point outburst against Northwestern and a 30-point effort against Illinois, a team that went on to make the Final Four.

Like Payne, Mills has picked up right where he left off. Against West Virginia, Mills went 9-for-15 from the field and led all scorers with 27 points. Mills is a well-rounded offensive player who isn’t overly reliant on any one aspect of his game. Last season, 41% of his points came from 3-pointers, while 40% came from inside the arc. In his 39-point game against Northwestern, he went 5-for-6 at the rim, according to BartTorvik.com, 6-for-9 from 3-point range and 9-for-9 from the free-throw line. Mills’ outside shooting ability, athleticism and attacking mentality make him one of the most dangerous guards in the conference and a key reason Maryland should return to the NCAA Tournament.

While Payne and Mills provide Maryland with a rock-solid foundation, Williams brought in 11 newcomers this offseason who will provide the Terps with the depth, versatility and upside they severely lacked a season ago.

Maryland’s additions on the perimeter should enable Payne and Mills to do what they do best. Last season, Maryland lacked a playmaking point guard who could consistently create scoring chances for his teammates. Maryland ranked 332nd out of 365 Division I teams in assist rate. DJ Wagner is better equipped to fill that role than anyone on last year’s team, and he should take some of the pressure off Mills to be a playmaker in addition to a scorer.

Although Wagner spent last season in an off-ball role for Arkansas, he’s shown flashes over the course of his career that he can be the point guard Maryland needs. During the 2024-25 season, Wagner took over as the primary point guard for the Razorbacks after Boogie Fland suffered an injury that forced him to miss the final 13 regular season games and the SEC Tournament. Wagner performed admirably, averaging 4.6 assists and posting a 1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio following Fland’s injury while leading Arkansas to the Sweet 16. Getting that version of Wagner is critical to Maryland's NCAA Tournament hopes.

The additions of Mike McNair Jr., Kaden House and Bishop Boswell also provide Maryland with critical backcourt depth. McNair, a career 42% 3-point shooter over three seasons at Boston University, could be a game-changer for a Maryland team that ranked 299th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage last season.

House appears to be the most ready-to-contribute freshman on Maryland’s roster, scoring in double figures in both exhibition contests while also flashing active hands and using his defense to create offense.

Boswell has been limited during the exhibition season due to an injury, but when healthy, he’s a tenacious perimeter defender who started 33 games for a Tennessee team that made the Elite Eight last season. Boswell isn’t just a defender. He also had 13 points and nine assists in a second-round NCAA Tournament win over Virginia last season.

Maryland’s frontcourt is significantly deeper as well. New Mexico transfer Tomislav Buljan led the Mountain West Conference in rebounding and double-doubles last season and should serve as a worthy complement to Payne. Buljan was held out of the Georgia Tech game, and despite scoring just two points against West Virginia, his length, court vision and rebounding prowess were on display as he grabbed seven rebounds, dished out four assists and added four steals.

If Payne were to miss extended time again this season, it would still be a major blow to Maryland’s NCAA Tournament chances. However, with the addition of Buljan and Robert Jennings II, a veteran who has started 52 games over four seasons at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, this team is far better equipped to handle moments when Payne is off the floor.

Of all Maryland’s offseason additions, Baba Oladotun is the most intriguing. The 6-foot-10 freshman was the top-rated prospect in ESPN’s class of 2027 recruiting rankings before reclassifying. At just 17 years old, Oladotun is the ultimate X-factor and will likely determine Maryland’s ceiling. He’s been quiet during the exhibition season, averaging just three points and one rebound over the two contests, but his potential is undeniable. His unique combination of perimeter skills, length and athleticism make him the kind of player who oozes next-level potential.

His skill set could give Williams the ability to throw different looks at opponents. Oladotun could start a game at small forward and give shorter wings problems with his length. Later, he could move to power forward for short spurts to stretch the floor if he can handle it defensively.

Even if Oladotun’s production doesn’t match his potential immediately, he’s the type of talent Maryland simply didn’t have on its roster last season. As Oladotun adjusts to the college game, he will have his ups and downs. He won’t lead the Terps in scoring this season and there will be nights he feels invisible, but there will also be nights when it all comes together and he helps Maryland win a game.

Nights like that are why Maryland will reach the NCAA Tournament this season. There won't just be nights when Oladotun wins games, but also nights when Wagner, Boswell, House and Buljan win games. The strength of this Maryland team is that it has two foundational players in Payne and Mills who can be counted on every single night and a roster full of players around them who can step up on any given night.

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