Three questions Maryland men's basketball must answer at home vs. No. 6 Virginia
The only similarity between the two games the Maryland Terrapins and Virginia Cavaliers played last weekend is that they both took place at Capital One Arena. A day after Georgetown soundly defeated Maryland 86-74, Virginia dismantled Arkansas 91-72 in a top-12 matchup in the same building. As the Terps try to right the ship following a disappointing loss to the Hoyas, the competition will only get tougher when the sixth-ranked Cavaliers visit College Park on Friday. The Terps must answer 'yes' to these three questions in order to upset their former ACC rival.
Can Maryland improve from beyond the arc on both ends of the court?
In Saturday’s loss to Georgetown, the Hoyas outscored the Terps 45-9 from 3-point range. Georgetown went 15-for-30, while Maryland went 3-for-20. As simple as the explanation may seem, the discrepancy in 3-point shooting is the primary reason Maryland lost the game. What won’t be quite as simple is rectifying that against Virginia.
The Hoyas did an excellent job of creating open 3-point shots in a variety of ways. Whether a possession started by pushing the ball up the court or with a post touch in the half court, Georgetown excelled at finding the open man and making the most of each opportunity.
Virginia should be even better. Through four games, five Cavaliers are shooting 40% or better from 3-point range and Virginia has put up an astounding 67.4% assist rate. Led by point guard Chance Mallory, Virginia is one of the best passing teams in the country and they have the outside shooters to make Maryland pay.
On the offensive end, the Terps’ three starting guards, DJ Wagner, Andre Mills and Mike McNair, went a combined 1-for-12 from beyond the arc against Georgetown. Maryland has to shoot the ball better, but that starts with better looks. Against the Hoyas, too many of the Terps’ 3-point shots were contested, especially in the first half. One of the ways Maryland can create better opportunities is to play through Pharrel Payne in the post. Payne, who scored 28 points against the Hoyas, demands attention every time he touches the ball and will draw double-teams if teams can’t defend him one-on-one. That extra attention from the defense will open up prime catch-and-shoot opportunities on the perimeter.
McNair is a career 40.9% 3-point shooter, Mills had multiple games in Big Ten play where he shot over 50% from deep on at least five attempts last season and freshman Kaden House went 3-for-5 over two exhibition games and is 2-for-4 to start the regular season. The Terps have capable outside shooters on the roster, but they have to generate the right kind of looks.
Can Maryland defend Thijs De Ridder?
The 6-foot-9 De Ridder entered the season as the ACC Preseason Player of the Year. So far he’s lived up to expectations, averaging 17.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3 steals and 2.8 assists per game. The 246-pound De Ridder is a load down low and can dribble, shoot and pass. With Virginia trailing Arkansas 13-12 in the first half, De Ridder knocked down a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer, forced an errant in-bound pass that led to an Arkansas turnover, missed a hook shot, but grabbed the offense rebound, reset things, probed the defense with his dribble and found his teammate Johann Grunloh for bucket that gave Virginia a 17-12 lead. That’s the magic of De Ridder’s game. He can do a little bit of everything and he can do it all exceptionally.
Tomislav Buljan, Robert Jennings and Payne will likely all spend time guarding De Ridder, but it will take a full team effort to contain him. Denying him the ball will be critical, and given his passing prowess, solid communication and rotation will be imperative if the Terps double-team him in the post. Outside of De Ridder’s skill, what makes him so difficult to defend is what surrounds him. The Cavaliers are far from a one-man team. They are among the most experienced teams in the country and with returning players like Grunloh, Mallory and senior guard Sam Lewis, who is averaging 15 points per game, committing too many resources to De Ridder is a risky proposition. The Terps will have their hands full defending this Virginia offense, but to pull off the upset they’ll have to find a way to at least slow it down.
Can Maryland take better care of the basketball?
Virginia is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Cavaliers have stolen the ball on over 18% of their defensive possessions and are ranked third nationally in steal percentage. Against Arkansas, they turned 15 Razorback turnovers into 24 points.
For a Maryland team that has struggled with taking care of the ball, this Virginia defense will present a major challenge. The Terps rank 230th nationally in turnover percentage and have committed 27 turnovers over two games.
Maryland’s offense has been at its best when the Terps are running the court and using their athleticism to attack the rim. However, that up-tempo style of play can lead to turnovers. Giving Virginia easy fastbreak opportunities isn’t a luxury Maryland can afford. If Maryland gets into a run-and-gun game with Virginia, it may not be able to keep up.
The Terps’ best path to victory is to limit possessions, play through Payne in the post, dominate the offensive glass and muck it up on the defensive end. But, if Maryland can’t take care of the ball, it won’t be able to do any of that.
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