After rattling off eight wins in their last nine games, Maryland returns to Big Ten play at 9-4 (1-1) and with work to do to reach tournament aspirations. It has looked bleak at times during non-conference play with poor three-point shooting and sloppy offense, however, the season can still be salvaged with the top-ranked team heading to College Park tonight. Purdue is the favorite to take home the national championship at the end of the year but Maryland has experience pulling off upsets against the Boilermakers. Maryland was also able to beat Purdue, then ranked three, last season in a game that garnered one of the best atmosphere's the Xfinity Center has seen in recent memory. Now, what will it take to beat Purdue? We shall dive into the analytics and see how Maryland could match up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWOyxpsG-GM&feature=youtu.be (All stats provided by Kenpom.com; rankings are out of 362 D-1 team; format: stat (ranking))
Maryland enters this game as the 74th-best overall team on Kenpom.com, moving up four spots since the UCLA game. The overall offense is getting much better as Maryland now ranks 134th in offensive efficiency. The defense remains strong at #25.
While fans have seen individual performances shine at times, similar to Jahmir Young's showing at UCLA, Maryland is still struggling to shoot at an efficient rate. Maryland's effective FG% ranks 271st in the country, largely due to their poor three-point shooting (as this stat weighs 3-point % more). The Terrapins are seeing a lot of improvement in protecting the ball. Earlier this season they ranked in the mid-200s in turnover percentage, but they've flipped that and now average less than the national average after posting a turnover-to-assist ratio over one in three of the last four games. Both DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jahari Long have helped the Terps turn the tide after combining for 25 assists to 13 turnovers over the last four games.
Down low, Julian Reese and Jordan Geronimo remain big factors on the glass. Reese ranks 135th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and 75th in defensive rebounding percentage. Geronimo also nationally ranks in offensive rebound percentage, which puts Maryland in the top 40 nationally in grabbing offensive boards. This revelation has helped Maryland's offense avoid complete disaster early on as second-chance opportunities and inconsistent shooting kept the struggling offense alive. The ability to get to the line is Maryland's best asset. Again it's Reese who helps a lot as he ranks 12th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Jahmir Young has also been drawing a lot more fouls (rank 102 in FD/40) and his 91% free-throw percentage makes him dangerous.
Defensively, Maryland remains overall strong. Maryland has done a great job limiting their opponents' success shooting. A majority of the teams they have faced do not have the best talent, however, still a solid sign to rank highly in effective field goal percentage. Maryland is still causing a lot of turnovers. Now that they are limiting their turnovers, winning the turnover battle can be key in close games down the stretch. Defensive rebounding has been a real issue as Maryland now ranks 249th in this metric. This showed up a lot against UCLA as on certain possessions the Bruins were getting 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th chances due to lazy rebounding by Maryland. Players such as Jordan Geronimo and Donta Scott have low defensive rebound percentages for their size.
While the three-point percentage has marginally improved over the last month, Maryland still only shoots 27.5% from behind the arc. It is going to take a while to dig out of this hole with players such as Jamie Kaiser (22%) and Deshawn Harris-Smith (20%) still struggling to find their shot. Maryland's two-point shooting remains in the middle of the pack, but free throw percentage remains inconsistent. Jahmir Young (91%) and Donta Scott (77%) help the Terrapins be respectable from the line, but Reese (59%) and Harris-Smith (56%) leave room for improvement, especially given the volume of attempts that Reese draws.
Defensively, Maryland has done a great job protecting the interior and limiting quality chances in the paint. This is evident with their opponents only shooting 42.4% on two-point shots. Maryland also ranks 40th in block percentage with Julian Reese (88th) and Jordan Geronimo (237th) leading the way in rim protection. The Terrapins are aggressive with their press defense and it has resulted in a lot of steals with Jahmir Young (2.6%), Deshawn Harris-Smith (3.0%), Jahari Long (3.3%), and Jamie Kaiser (3.6%) all ranked among the top nationally in steal percentage. Opponents are shooting very well from behind the three-point line, however, Maryland does well limiting the number of attempts. Creating turnovers and protecting the interior has been a success for the Maryland defense so far.
As just mentioned, opponents are not shooting three-pointers against Maryland. Only a shocking 25.8% of opponents' field goal attempts have been from behind the arc, putting Maryland second in the country for opponents' three-point attempt rate. Maryland is also limiting opponents' assist rates. This is generally a good sign for limiting the opponent's ball movement. Despite their three-point struggles, Maryland keeps lofting up these shots as they rank 103rd in the three-point attempt rate. The Terrapins are hoping that the shots will start falling. Assists is a category where Maryland also needs to improve. Ball movement has been a contention from Maryland fans as oftentimes it seems players are standing around. More ball movement may be needed to get the offense rolling.
Maryland ranks fifth in free-throw point distribution. This makes sense due to their ability to get the line but also how much they have struggled to shoot. Foul calls are not a given, and to beat good teams they are going to have to shoot better and even out these offensive point distributions.
Defensive point distribution is very interesting. Maryland ranks 11th in 2P% defense, but 55.6% of opponents points come from 2-pointers. Opponents are shooting 34% from three against Maryland but only 23.35% of their points come from behind the line (which ranks in the bottom 20). This will come down to how much opponents shoot the three. Although they are shooting it well, opponents have not been pulling the trigger against Maryland. The Terrapins are fouling more than the national average, something that can lower as well.
Preview Vs. #2 Purdue
Purdue Offense vs Maryland Defense
Purdue boasts one of the best offenses in the country as they score 122.4 points per 100 possessions. The Boilermakers are average in terms of their pace of play. A top-25 Maryland defense is going to have their hands full.
Purdue almost does everything right on offense. They rank 17th in effective field goal, something Maryland has done well in but has not played anyone like Purdue. Despite Purdue's depth Maryland has an advantage in turnovers. Turnovers were a big factor in Maryland's success last season against Purdue and a clear advantage like this will need to be exploited if Maryland wants a chance. Obviously, Purdue can rebound well and this will be a huge challenge for Maryland as reigning player of the year Zach Edey draws Maryland's full attention. Edey ranks 16th in offensive rebound percentage while Mason Gillis, a key piece in the rotation, is also a threat on the glass. Zach Edey is also the most fouled player in the country and is part of the reason Purdue's free-throw attempt/field goal attempts are one of the nation's best. Maryland has to limit these fouls to keep them in it, especially Reese given the limited depth in the front court.
Purdue can really come from all angles. Just when you think Edey is the only issue on the inside, their guards can help them become a top-20 team in terms of three-point shooting. Guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer rank nationally for three-point shooting but it is forward Mason Gillis who is shooting 52% from behind the arc. Maryland will have to continue to limit three-point opportunities. Maryland's 11th-ranked 2-point defense will be challenged against Edey's paint presence. Look for Maryland to capitalize on Purdue's tenancy to get the ball stolen.
Despite Purdue's light-out shooting from range, they are not going to take a lot of shots. Combine this with Maryland's opponents not taking a lot of three-pointers and how many chances the Boilermakers get from deep will be interesting, especially when considering how the Terps will defend Edey in the post. This will help Maryland stay in the game if Purdue is working inside the paint, making it all the more important that Maryland has a strong interior defense. It is hard to defend Edey, but Reese will have to be up to par if Maryland wants a chance for the upset.
Purdue Defense vs Maryland Offense
The Boilermakers also have one of the best defenses in terms of analytics. Their ninth-ranked defense boasts solid numbers across the board.
Purdue is top-45 in effective field goal percentage. Although it's not as good as Maryland, the Terps' underwhelming offensive effective field goal percentage gives Purdue the edge in the matchup. Purdue also rebounds very well and does not foul. This combats what Maryland does well on offense as this could be a potentially bad matchup for Maryland. Zach Edey is nationally ranked for defensive rebound percentage and also only gets called for 2.2 fouls per 40 minutes. Reese is very efficient at getting to the line but Edey is very disciplined on the inside, giving Reese potential issues creating second chances on the glass and getting to the line like he has been all season. Purdue does not create a lot of turnovers and although Maryland was struggling early with their turnovers, they have improved a lot in the past few games. The underlying statistics indicate Maryland could win the turnover battle on both ends.
Maryland may struggle again from the three-point line as Purdue has done a great job defending it this season. Purdue also has an above-average two-point defense in terms of shooting percentage. Maryland's shooting woes may not get any better against the Boilermakers but again their turnover numbers are bad.
Opponents have been shooting a fair amount of three-pointers against Purdue, most likely due to the deficit these teams are facing. I see Maryland doing the same thing and taking the open looks at home. Interestingly, opponents have created a lot of assists against the Purdue defense. Point distribution is pretty even between three-pointers and two-pointers. Opponents have not been able to put a lot of free throws against Purdue and this is worrisome based on Maryland's heavy reliance on this shot to get them points. Overall, this is a bad matchup for Maryland. Maryland creates offense by getting to the line and grabbing offensive boards. Purdue is terrific at stopping both of these and can also defend shooting, which Maryland struggles with already. Zach Edey is almost impossible to defend on the offensive side of the ball. Purdue can shoot with any team in the country and also has the best player in the country to feed it to on the inside. Reese did a great job last year and he will need a repeat performance if Maryland wants a chance. KenPom projected score Purdue 76, Maryland 66 https://open.spotify.com/episode/765MvYqPCrNOQXreD44YBU?si=059368d18318454a Related Links How to watch, listen as Maryland prepares for big test vs. PurdueKevin Willard on roster comfort, Jahmir Young’s status vs. PurdueFour-star Malachi Palmer announces his commitment to MarylandFour takeaways for 2024 from Maryland’s Music City Bowl winBeau Brade declares for 2024 NFL DraftYoung Terps: Maryland dominates Auburn in Music City BowlMike Locksley on Maryland’s “bright future” after bowl win vs. Auburn
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