Five Keys to Victory vs. Northwestern

Maryland will look for its sixth win in the last seven homecoming games on Saturday when they look to top Northwestern in the third-ever matchup between the two teams. It’ll mark the first time since 2020 that head coach Mike Locksley and Pat Fitzgerald have teed off as the Terps look for their first-ever win over the Wildcats, but they’ll do so as the heavy favorite with a chance to secure bowl eligibility. While on paper Maryland looks to be the more talented team, where are the biggest battles on the field this weekend? We take a deeper dive as we examine five keys to victory.

• Run, run, run: Maryland will likely have a new quarterback under center on Saturday and one thing that helps inexperienced quarterbacks is getting the running game going. Luckily for Maryland, they have two reasons to feel good about their chances of establishing the run. The first is that Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton make a great duo. Hemby is coming off his third 100-yard game of the season in the win against Indiana. He leads the Terps in rushing with 502 yards and has scored four touchdowns on the ground. Littleton, meanwhile, had a 100-yard game against Michigan State. He leads Maryland in rushing touchdowns with six to go along with his 309 yards on the ground. The other thing that helps the rushing game is that Northwestern has given up 176 yards per game in 2022, the second worst in the Big Ten, only ahead of Nebraska. It helps that Maryland will get a chance to do that against a Northwestern defense that allows the second-most yards on the ground in the Big Ten and is one of four teams in the conference to allow over 1,000 yards rushing. The problem with that? The other three teams–Nebraska, Michigan State and Indiana–have played one more game that the Wildcats. Maryland has rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season except for Purdue, where the Terps finished under three yards per carry, but Saturday marks the first opportunity for the running backs room to eclipse 200 rushing yards in a game.
• Use passing game as complement to run game: Maryland has thrown for at least 250 yards in all but one game this season, but on Saturday, the Terps won’t need to force the passing attack. The recipe for success against the Wildcats sits on the ground as discussed, but this week’s aerial attack gives Maryland a chance to get creative through the air. A three-step drop to facilitate quick reads along with bubble screens can help Maryland’s offense get the ball quickly along the perimeter, while Edwards has the arm strength to stretch Northwestern vertically, giving Maryland a chance to force Northwestern to play honest defensively. Despite it being his first career start, there’s confidence in Edwards’s ability to run the Maryland offense just like offensive coordinator Dan Enos wants it. “”We prepare him every week, he gets 40 percent of the reps as the backup quarterback,” Locksley said during his midweek press conference. “We’ll continue to as we monitor where Lia is on a day-to-day basis, those may change. But we recruited him here once he went to the portal just for this purpose on a lot like a year ago with Reece Udinski, having a guy that’s capable of coming in and you know, Billy is one of those players.” Maryland enters Saturday sitting in the top-25 nationally in red zone offense (96.3%), completion percentage (71.4%), fourth down conversion percentage (76.9%) and passing offense (300.4) but on Saturday, they’ll need a game manager. Billy has proven capable of throwing on the run, extending the field while also not afraid to tuck it and pick up yards with his legs. Maryland won’t need the big plays, but they’ll need an efficient Edwards to counter a reeling Wildcats defense.
• Stop Evan Hull: Hull is the Wildcats leader in both rushing and receiving. He has 428 yards on the ground and 405 yards receiving, becoming just one of three FBS players since 2000 and first since 2011 to have over 400 yards in both categories through the first six games. He’s one of two skill players with over 30 catches this season, joining slot receiver Malik Washington (34), and enters Saturday tenth in the nation with 149.2 all-purpose yards per game as slowing him down will be the key to stopping Northwestern’s offense. Luckily for Maryland, the run defense has given up a total of 49 yards in the last two games and will have a chance to reassert control heading into the bye week. The defensive line will need to continue their solid play to keep Northwestern from establishing their rushing game. In the passing game, there must be a man on Hull at all times, or else it could end badly for the Terps. If Maryland can contain Hull, it will help take pressure off the offense.
• Work around Peter Skoronski: It’s not a stretch to say that Skorinski might be the Wildcats’s best player regardless of position. The junior is considered one of the top tackle prospects in the 2023 NFL draft and was also named a PFF offensive player of the week after his performance against Nebraska. Skoronski anchors an offensive line that allows just 1.17 sacks per game, the third fewest in the Big Ten, and returned four of their five starters last season. It’ll be a tough test for a Maryland defense that has recorded three sacks in each of the last two games, but the Wildcats’ offensive line has done a good job creating sound running lanes for Hull to explode through. Maryland’s front seven could be without linebacker Ruben Hyppolite once more, but the front seven has done well against the run since the Terps returned home from Ann Arbor. Maryland’s pressure has seen an uptick in production when it sees defensive end Durell Nchami wreaking havoc off the edge and the potential 2023 NFL Draft selection will have an opportunity to prove himself against elite competition on Saturday. If the Terps can get into the backfield, they’ll have a good opportunity to shut down a Northwestern offense that’s tallied over 2,300 yards of total offense—the most through the first six games since 2017 for the Wildcats’ offense.