Non Rev

Evaluating the postseason chances for Maryland baseball

Infield Kevin Keister (3) Maryland Men's Baseball vs. USC Upstate at Bob "Turtle" Smith Stadium in College Park, MD on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. Hyun Jo Choi/ University of Maryland Athletics

For the first time since 2021, Maryland baseball will not be the regular season champions of the Big Ten. However, the Terps are alive for the postseason in more ways than one. Matt Swope’s squad seems to have found their stride recently after a rough stretch in the middle of the season. With just six games left and only three of them in conference, let’s take a look at how Maryland can get into the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten Tournament

Out of the thirteen teams in the Big Ten, only eight qualify for the Big Ten Tournament in Omaha. Winning the Big Ten Tournament — as Maryland did last year — guarantees a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Maryland is currently clinging to the eighth and final spot with a 10-11 Big Ten record. Technically speaking, it’s possible (but highly unlikely) that the Terps can go up all the way to second place by the end of the season, but that would require some massive help, including Purdue, Nebraska, and Indiana losing out or almost losing out.

Realistically speaking, Maryland can catch Michigan State for seventh, and even possibly Michigan for sixth if things go the Terps’ way. They can also, however, completely fall out of the picture with a series loss to Penn State next weekend. Maryland falling out of the Big Ten Tournament picture likely means they will not get an at-large bid. It’s also important to remember that this upcoming series against Boston College does not count toward the conference standings. Maryland and Iowa are the only two teams in the conference to play 21 conference games at this point in time, everyone else has played 18.

Important Note About At-Large

Unlike college football and basketball, the Big Ten is not known for baseball. While the conference has gotten miles better over the last few years (Maryland has certainly helped with that), the Big Ten simply is not on the same level as the SEC, ACC, and Big 12. Even the Sun Belt could arguably be a better baseball conference than the Big Ten. The committee has also tended to not look very favorably on the Big Ten. In 2022, Rutgers was left out of the field despite a school record in wins, a Big Ten Championship Game appearance, and an RPI ranking of 42. Last season, the committee sent Maryland, the regular season AND conference tournament champion, to the number one overall seed and eventual College World Series participant Wake Forest. A lot of media personalities around the country felt like Maryland got the short end of the stick with their draw.

The strength of schedule can also be costly for Big Ten teams. For example, Illinois might be leading the Big Ten, but they are currently 92nd in strength of schedule while second place Purdue is 77th. These are the stats that work against the Big Ten come Memorial Day. The Illini are currently not even in the projected field, and are in the Next Four Out right now.

For an out-of-conference example, let’s take former Maryland coach Rob Vaughn’s Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama is currently 30-18 overall (almost identical to Maryland’s 31-18 record) and are 10-14 in SEC play. Despite Bama’s sub-500 record in SEC play, the Tide have series wins over Tennessee and South Carolina, currently the number 1 and number 13 ranked teams in the country. They also have several wins over ranked opponents including Arizona, Arkansas and Mississippi State, and have played the fourth-hardest schedule in America. Alabama consistently has opportunity after opportunity to play good teams and win big games like the rest of the SEC — and unlike Maryland and the Big Ten. The Crimson Tide have also played 28 Quad One games, while Maryland has played just four. Hence why Alabama’s record looks a lot different (10-14, 30-18) than Maryland’s record (10-11, 31-18) and why the Tide are currently projected as a three seed in the Santa Barbara regional.

Maryland’s At-Large Hopes

The Terps’ at-large hopes for an NCAA Tournament bid have been shrinking over recent weeks. Despite 31 wins, Maryland’s 10-11 record in Big Ten play and 66th strength of schedule ranking significantly hurt their chances. Another stat that has likely hurt the Terps is their 9-7 record in Quad Three games, though Wednesday night’s comeback win vs. USC-Upstate certainly helped. Despite currently having the third-highest RPI in the conference, Maryland will likely have to win the Big Ten Tournament (or at the very least make a significant run) to have hope of making the tournament.

Additionally, Maryland is not in the latest Field of 64 Projections by D1Baseball and Baseball America.